Al Taawon 2–1 Altyn Asyr: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Al Taawon

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Altyn Asyr

Sultan Mandash 47'

João Pedro 45+2'

R. Myratberdiýew 58'

10/23/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Al Taawoun Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Taawon47%

×Draw24%

Altyn Asyr29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al TaawonExpected goals in this matchAltyn Asyr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.29

Al Taawon

1.68

Altyn Asyr

1.29

Al Taawon creates 30% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 21 away

1.50

creates per match

1.57

1.00

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Al Taawon

1.50

Altyn Asyr

1.57

allows per match

Al Taawon

1.00

Altyn Asyr

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Taawon+0.00on par

Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taawon ↓

Altyn Asyr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al Taawon or draw

71%

Al Taawon or Altyn Asyr

76%

Draw or Altyn Asyr

53%

Winning margin

Al Taawon wins by 2+

24%

Altyn Asyr wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Taawon 1+ goals

81%

Al Taawon 2+ goals

50%

Al Taawon 3+ goals

24%

Altyn Asyr 1+ goals

72%

Altyn Asyr 2+ goals

37%

Altyn Asyr 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Al Taawon (draw refunded)

61%

Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taawon at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taawon attack 1.50 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.68

Altyn Asyr attack 1.57 + Al Taawon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Taawon scores more

47%

level

24%

Altyn Asyr scores more

29%

Al Taawon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Taawon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

M. Barrow

Al Taawon · M

9.0

Match Events

28'

Zafar Babajanov

41'

Fayçal Fajr

45+3'

Ruslan Taydzhiev

45+2'

João Pedro↳ M. Barrow

46'

M. Annaýew← R. Halmammedow

47'

Sultan Mandash↳ M. Barrow

49'

Ş. Durdyýew← A. Annamyradov

56'

Waleed Al Ahmad← Muteb Al Mufarrij

58'

R. Myratberdiýew↳ M. Annaýew

67'

Ahmed Bahusayn← F. Fajr

67'

M. Titow← B. Myradow

69'

Mateus← Sultan Mandash

72'

Söhrat Durdyýew

89'

Awn Al Saluli← Fahad Al Abdulrazzaq

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAltyn

Overview

72%Possession28%

13Total Shots5

7Corners1

8Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots5

4On Target1

6Off Target3

3Blocked1

8Inside Box2

5Outside Box3

Passing

72%Possession28%

668Total Passes260

601Accurate Passes191

90%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1