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Al Taawon vs Al Thaid — Division 1 2018

Al Taawon
Al Taawon
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al Thaid
Al Thaid
10/22/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 6Mohammed Bin Saud Al-Qasimi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Al Taawon38%
×Draw26%
Al Thaid37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taawon
1.39
Al Thaid
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 100 away

creates per match

Al Taawon
1.27
Al Thaid
1.10

allows per match

Al Taawon
1.62
Al Thaid
1.51

finishing

Al Taawon+0.00on par
Al Thaid+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taawon ↓

Al Thaid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Al Taawon or draw
63%
Al Taawon or Al Thaid
74%
Draw or Al Thaid
62%

Winning margin

Al Taawon wins by 2+
17%
Al Thaid wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Al Taawon 1+ goals
75%
Al Taawon 2+ goals
40%
Al Taawon 3+ goals
16%
Al Thaid 1+ goals
74%
Al Thaid 2+ goals
39%
Al Thaid 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al Taawon (draw refunded)
51%
Al Thaid (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taawon at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.62 · 73 matches

Al Thaid away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taawon attack 1.27 + Al Thaid defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Al Thaid attack 1.10 + Al Taawon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Taawon scores more
38%
level
26%
Al Thaid scores more
37%

Al Taawon at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Taawon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Taawon vs Al Thaid

Al Thaid beat Al Taawon 3-1 in Division 1 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Mohammed Bin Saud Al-Qasimi Stadium in Ash Sha'm.