Al Taawon 1–0 Al Okhdood: Result & Stats

Al Taawon

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Okhdood

M. Al Qahtani 58'

1/30/2026

Pro League · Round 19Al Taawon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Al Taawon50%

×Draw25%

Al Okhdood25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al TaawonExpected goals in this matchAl Okhdood

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.03

Al Taawon

1.58

Al Okhdood

1.03

Al Taawon creates 53% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 51 away

1.52

creates per match

0.76

1.30

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Al Taawon

1.52

Al Okhdood

0.76

allows per match

Al Taawon

1.30

Al Okhdood

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Taawon+0.00on par

Al Okhdood+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taawon ↓

Al Okhdood →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Taawon or draw

75%

Al Taawon or Al Okhdood

75%

Draw or Al Okhdood

50%

Winning margin

Al Taawon wins by 2+

26%

Al Okhdood wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Al Taawon 1+ goals

79%

Al Taawon 2+ goals

47%

Al Taawon 3+ goals

21%

Al Okhdood 1+ goals

64%

Al Okhdood 2+ goals

28%

Al Okhdood 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al Taawon (draw refunded)

67%

Al Okhdood (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taawon at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.30 · 81 matches

Al Okhdood away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.65 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taawon attack 1.52 + Al Okhdood defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.58

Al Okhdood attack 0.76 + Al Taawon defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Taawon scores more

50%

level

25%

Al Okhdood scores more

25%

Al Taawon at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Taawon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Fulgini

Al Taawon · M

8.2

Match Events

6'

Saeed Al-Rabiei

18'

Tokmac NguenPenalty confirmed

31'

Naif Assery

34'

Moustapha SémbèneCard reviewed

35'

Moustapha Sémbène

41'

M. Al Alaeli← M. Sembene

57'

J. Pedroza← N. Asiri

58'

M. Al Qahtani

78'

S. M. Al Aqel M.← C. Zambrano

79'

A. Al Salem← G. Hawsawi

80'

S. Al Abbas← T. Nguen

83'

Roger Martínez

85'

A. Hawsawi← M. Al Qahtani

86'

Ibrahim Ashi

86'

A. Al Marwani← A. Bahusayn

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl

Overview

64%Possession36%

12Total Shots18

1.85Expected Goals (xG)2.55

12Corners3

11Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots18

6On Target3

4Off Target7

2Blocked8

10Inside Box9

2Outside Box9

Passing

64%Possession36%

475Total Passes261

411Accurate Passes198

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3