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Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr — Pro League 2018

Al Taawon
Al Taawon
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Nassr
Al-Nassr
8/29/2025Pro LeaguePro League · Round 1Al Taawon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Al Taawon29%
×Draw24%
Al-Nassr47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taawon
1.30
Al-Nassr
1.71

Al-Nassr creates 32% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 126 away

creates per match

Al Taawon
1.63
Al-Nassr
2.17

allows per match

Al Taawon
1.24
Al-Nassr
0.98

finishing

Al Taawon+0.00on par
Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taawon ↓

Al-Nassr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Taawon or draw
53%
Al Taawon or Al-Nassr
76%
Draw or Al-Nassr
71%

Winning margin

Al Taawon wins by 2+
12%
Al-Nassr wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Al Taawon 1+ goals
73%
Al Taawon 2+ goals
37%
Al Taawon 3+ goals
14%
Al-Nassr 1+ goals
82%
Al-Nassr 2+ goals
51%
Al-Nassr 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Al Taawon (draw refunded)
38%
Al-Nassr (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taawon at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 126 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 2.17, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taawon attack 1.63 + Al-Nassr defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.30

Al-Nassr attack 2.17 + Al Taawon defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Taawon scores more
29%
level
24%
Al-Nassr scores more
47%

Al-Nassr at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr

Al-Nassr beat Al Taawon 5-0 in Pro League on August 29, 2025.

The match was played at Al Taawon Arena in Buraidah.