Al Taawon 2–1 Al-Hazm: Result & Stats | Pro League

Al Taawon

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Al-Hazm

Iago Santos 84'

L. Tawamba 29'

M. Rharsalla 27'

1/7/2022

Pro League · Round 16King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Al Taawon57%

×Draw22%

Al-Hazm21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al TaawonExpected goals in this matchAl-Hazm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.05

Al Taawon

1.89

Al-Hazm

1.05

Al Taawon creates 80% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.92

creates per match

0.67

1.43

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Al Taawon

1.92

Al-Hazm

0.67

allows per match

Al Taawon

1.43

Al-Hazm

1.86

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Al Taawon-0.32scores less

Al-Hazm+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taawon ↓

Al-Hazm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Al Taawon or draw

79%

Al Taawon or Al-Hazm

78%

Draw or Al-Hazm

43%

Winning margin

Al Taawon wins by 2+

33%

Al-Hazm wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al Taawon 1+ goals

85%

Al Taawon 2+ goals

56%

Al Taawon 3+ goals

29%

Al-Hazm 1+ goals

65%

Al-Hazm 2+ goals

28%

Al-Hazm 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al Taawon (draw refunded)

73%

Al-Hazm (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taawon at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.43 · 10 matches

Al-Hazm away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.86 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taawon attack 1.92 + Al-Hazm defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.89

Al-Hazm attack 0.67 + Al Taawon defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al Taawon scores more

57%

level

22%

Al-Hazm scores more

21%

Al Taawon at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al Taawon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Iago Santos

Al Taawon · D

7.9

Match Events

27'

M. Rharsalla↳ Fahad Al-Obaid

29'

L. Tawamba↳ Saad Yaslam

43'

KakuPenalty awarded

44'

Alison

50'

Tiago Rodrigues

61'

Ahmed Al-Juwaid← O. John

65'

Sumayhan Al Nabit← L. Henrique

72'

Fahad Al Rashidi← A. Gamarra

72'

Y. Omar← Mohammad Al-Sahlawi

79'

Abdullah Alshamri

82'

Abdulrahman Al-Harthi← M. Rharsalla

82'

Abdulrahman Al-Dakheel← Osama Al-Khalaf

84'

Iago Santos

88'

Nawaf Al Subhi← Hassan Al Amri

88'

Abdulmalik Al Oyayari← Medrán

90+5'

Fahad Ayed Al-Rashidi

90+6'

Abdullah Alshamri

90+6'

Abdullah Alshamri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl-Hazm

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots12

3Corners1

15Fouls23

Shots

16Total Shots12

6On Target4

8Off Target5

2Blocked3

10Inside Box10

6Outside Box2

Passing

53%Possession47%

431Total Passes378

351Accurate Passes305

81%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls23

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides1