Al Taawon 1–2 Al-Ahli Jeddah: Result & Stats

Al Taawon

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Al-Ahli Jeddah

5/11/2026

Pro League · Round 32Al Taawon Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al Taawon40%

×Draw25%

Al-Ahli Jeddah36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al TaawonExpected goals in this matchAl-Ahli Jeddah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.44

Al Taawon

1.52

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 111 away

1.63

creates per match

1.65

1.24

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Al Taawon

1.63

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.65

allows per match

Al Taawon

1.24

Al-Ahli Jeddah

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Taawon+0.00on par

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taawon ↓

Al-Ahli Jeddah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Al Taawon or draw

64%

Al Taawon or Al-Ahli Jeddah

75%

Draw or Al-Ahli Jeddah

60%

Winning margin

Al Taawon wins by 2+

19%

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Al Taawon 1+ goals

78%

Al Taawon 2+ goals

45%

Al Taawon 3+ goals

20%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals

76%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals

42%

Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Al Taawon (draw refunded)

52%

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taawon at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 126 matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.41 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taawon attack 1.63 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.65 + Al Taawon defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Taawon scores more

40%

level

25%

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more

36%

Al Taawon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Taawon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff