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Al Ta'awon vs Shabaab al Jabal — Premier League 2019

Al Ta'awon
Al Ta'awon
FT
3 – 0
Shabaab al Jabal
Shabaab al Jabal
12/17/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Al Ta'awon54%
×Draw26%
Shabaab al Jabal20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ta'awon
1.56
Shabaab al Jabal
0.85

Al Ta'awon creates 84% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 29 away

creates per match

Al Ta'awon
1.34
Shabaab al Jabal
0.79

allows per match

Al Ta'awon
0.92
Shabaab al Jabal
1.79

finishing

Al Ta'awon+0.00on par
Shabaab al Jabal+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ta'awon ↓

Shabaab al Jabal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Ta'awon or draw
80%
Al Ta'awon or Shabaab al Jabal
74%
Draw or Shabaab al Jabal
46%

Winning margin

Al Ta'awon wins by 2+
28%
Shabaab al Jabal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Ta'awon 1+ goals
79%
Al Ta'awon 2+ goals
46%
Al Ta'awon 3+ goals
21%
Shabaab al Jabal 1+ goals
57%
Shabaab al Jabal 2+ goals
21%
Shabaab al Jabal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Ta'awon (draw refunded)
73%
Shabaab al Jabal (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ta'awon at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

Shabaab al Jabal away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ta'awon attack 1.34 + Shabaab al Jabal defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Shabaab al Jabal attack 0.79 + Al Ta'awon defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al Ta'awon scores more
54%
level
26%
Shabaab al Jabal scores more
20%

Al Ta'awon at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al Ta'awon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Ta'awon 3–0 Shabaab al Jabal

Al Ta'awon beat Shabaab al Jabal 3-0 in Premier League on December 17, 2021.