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Al Suwaiq vs Sur — Professional League 2019

Al Suwaiq
Al Suwaiq
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Sur
Sur
4/3/2023Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 20AL Rustaq Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Al Suwaiq47%
×Draw29%
Sur24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Suwaiq
1.24
Sur
0.80

Al Suwaiq creates 55% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 48 away

creates per match

Al Suwaiq
1.13
Sur
0.83

allows per match

Al Suwaiq
0.78
Sur
1.35

finishing

Al Suwaiq+0.00on par
Sur+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Suwaiq ↓

Sur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Suwaiq or draw
76%
Al Suwaiq or Sur
71%
Draw or Sur
53%

Winning margin

Al Suwaiq wins by 2+
21%
Sur wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Suwaiq 1+ goals
71%
Al Suwaiq 2+ goals
35%
Al Suwaiq 3+ goals
13%
Sur 1+ goals
55%
Sur 2+ goals
19%
Sur 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Suwaiq (draw refunded)
66%
Sur (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Suwaiq at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Sur away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.35 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Suwaiq attack 1.13 + Sur defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sur attack 0.83 + Al Suwaiq defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Suwaiq scores more
47%
level
29%
Sur scores more
24%

Al Suwaiq at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al Suwaiq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Suwaiq vs Sur

Al Suwaiq beat Sur 4-1 in Professional League on April 3, 2023.

The match was played at AL Rustaq Sports Complex in Rustaq.