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Al Suwaiq vs Nizwa — Professional League 2019

Al Suwaiq
Al Suwaiq
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nizwa
Nizwa
12/26/2021Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 7Al-Seeb Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Suwaiq62%
×Draw25%
Nizwa14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Suwaiq
1.59
Nizwa
0.59

Al Suwaiq creates 169% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 17 away

creates per match

Al Suwaiq
1.13
Nizwa
0.41

allows per match

Al Suwaiq
0.78
Nizwa
2.06

finishing

Al Suwaiq+0.00on par
Nizwa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Suwaiq ↓

Nizwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Suwaiq or draw
86%
Al Suwaiq or Nizwa
75%
Draw or Nizwa
38%

Winning margin

Al Suwaiq wins by 2+
34%
Nizwa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al Suwaiq 1+ goals
80%
Al Suwaiq 2+ goals
47%
Al Suwaiq 3+ goals
21%
Nizwa 1+ goals
45%
Nizwa 2+ goals
12%
Nizwa 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Al Suwaiq (draw refunded)
82%
Nizwa (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Suwaiq at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Nizwa away — creates 0.41, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Suwaiq attack 1.13 + Nizwa defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.59

Nizwa attack 0.41 + Al Suwaiq defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Al Suwaiq scores more
62%
level
25%
Nizwa scores more
14%

Al Suwaiq at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al Suwaiq will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Suwaiq vs Nizwa

Al Suwaiq and Nizwa drew 0-0 in Professional League on December 26, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Seeb Stadium in Seeb.