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Al-Suqoor vs Military Union SC — Premier League 2019

Al-Suqoor
Al-Suqoor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Military Union SC
Military Union SC
4/6/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Group C - 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Al-Suqoor28%
×Draw30%
Military Union SC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Suqoor
0.91
Military Union SC
1.18

Military Union SC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

creates per match

Al-Suqoor
1.09
Military Union SC
1.18

allows per match

Al-Suqoor
1.18
Military Union SC
0.73

finishing

Al-Suqoor+0.00on par
Military Union SC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Suqoor ↓

Military Union SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al-Suqoor or draw
58%
Al-Suqoor or Military Union SC
70%
Draw or Military Union SC
72%

Winning margin

Al-Suqoor wins by 2+
10%
Military Union SC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al-Suqoor 1+ goals
60%
Al-Suqoor 2+ goals
23%
Al-Suqoor 3+ goals
6%
Military Union SC 1+ goals
69%
Military Union SC 2+ goals
33%
Military Union SC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al-Suqoor (draw refunded)
40%
Military Union SC (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Suqoor at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 33 matches

Military Union SC away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Suqoor attack 1.09 + Military Union SC defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

Military Union SC attack 1.18 + Al-Suqoor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al-Suqoor scores more
28%
level
30%
Military Union SC scores more
42%

Military Union SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Military Union SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al-Suqoor vs Military Union SC

Al-Suqoor and Military Union SC drew 1-1 in Premier League on April 6, 2026.