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Al Sinaah vs Samarra — Iraqi League 2020

Al Sinaah
Al Sinaah
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Samarra
Samarra
9/30/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 3Al Sina'a Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Sinaah46%
×Draw32%
Samarra22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sinaah
1.11
Samarra
0.66

Al Sinaah creates 68% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 13 away

creates per match

Al Sinaah
0.76
Samarra
0.31

allows per match

Al Sinaah
1.00
Samarra
1.46

finishing

Al Sinaah+0.00on par
Samarra+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sinaah ↓

Samarra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Al Sinaah or draw
78%
Al Sinaah or Samarra
68%
Draw or Samarra
54%

Winning margin

Al Sinaah wins by 2+
20%
Samarra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Sinaah 1+ goals
67%
Al Sinaah 2+ goals
30%
Al Sinaah 3+ goals
10%
Samarra 1+ goals
48%
Samarra 2+ goals
14%
Samarra 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Sinaah (draw refunded)
68%
Samarra (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sinaah at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Samarra away — creates 0.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sinaah attack 0.76 + Samarra defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.11

Samarra attack 0.31 + Al Sinaah defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Sinaah scores more
46%
level
32%
Samarra scores more
22%

Al Sinaah at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Sinaah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Sinaah 1–0 Samarra

Al Sinaah beat Samarra 1-0 in Iraqi League on September 30, 2021.

The match was played at Al Sina'a Stadium in Bagdad.