Al Sinaah 3–0 Al Karkh: Result & Stats

Al Sinaah

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Karkh

3/8/2022

Iraqi League · Round 25Al Sina'a Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Al Sinaah32%

×Draw31%

Al Karkh37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SinaahExpected goals in this matchAl Karkh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.01

Al Sinaah

0.92

Al Karkh

1.01

Al Karkh creates 10% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 108 away

0.76

creates per match

1.02

1.00

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Al Sinaah

0.76

Al Karkh

1.02

allows per match

Al Sinaah

1.00

Al Karkh

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Sinaah+0.00on par

Al Karkh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sinaah ↓

Al Karkh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Sinaah or draw

63%

Al Sinaah or Al Karkh

69%

Draw or Al Karkh

68%

Winning margin

Al Sinaah wins by 2+

11%

Al Karkh wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al Sinaah 1+ goals

60%

Al Sinaah 2+ goals

23%

Al Sinaah 3+ goals

7%

Al Karkh 1+ goals

64%

Al Karkh 2+ goals

27%

Al Karkh 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Sinaah (draw refunded)

47%

Al Karkh (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sinaah at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Al Karkh away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sinaah attack 0.76 + Al Karkh defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.92

Al Karkh attack 1.02 + Al Sinaah defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Sinaah scores more

32%

level

31%

Al Karkh scores more

37%

Al Karkh at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Al Karkh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff