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Al Simawa vs Zakho — Iraqi League 2020

Al Simawa
Al Simawa
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zakho
Zakho
7/9/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 36Al Samawah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Simawa28%
×Draw33%
Zakho40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Simawa
0.79
Zakho
1.01

Zakho creates 28% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 109 away

creates per match

Al Simawa
0.63
Zakho
1.02

allows per match

Al Simawa
1.00
Zakho
0.95

finishing

Al Simawa+0.00on par
Zakho+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Simawa ↓

Zakho →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–117%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al Simawa or draw
60%
Al Simawa or Zakho
67%
Draw or Zakho
72%

Winning margin

Al Simawa wins by 2+
9%
Zakho wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Simawa 1+ goals
55%
Al Simawa 2+ goals
19%
Al Simawa 3+ goals
5%
Zakho 1+ goals
64%
Zakho 2+ goals
27%
Zakho 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Simawa (draw refunded)
41%
Zakho (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Simawa at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Zakho away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.95 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Simawa attack 0.63 + Zakho defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.79

Zakho attack 1.02 + Al Simawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Simawa scores more
28%
level
33%
Zakho scores more
40%

Zakho at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zakho will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Simawa 0–2 Zakho

Zakho beat Al Simawa 2-0 in Iraqi League on July 9, 2021.

The match was played at Al Samawah Stadium in Al Samawah.