Al Simawa 1–2 Naft Maysan: Result & Stats

Al Simawa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Naft Maysan

3/9/2021

Iraqi League · Round 23Al Samawah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Simawa33%

×Draw31%

Naft Maysan36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SimawaExpected goals in this matchNaft Maysan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.03

Al Simawa

0.97

Naft Maysan

1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 112 away

0.63

creates per match

1.06

1.00

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Al Simawa

0.63

Naft Maysan

1.06

allows per match

Al Simawa

1.00

Naft Maysan

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Simawa+0.00on par

Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Simawa ↓

Naft Maysan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Simawa or draw

64%

Al Simawa or Naft Maysan

69%

Draw or Naft Maysan

67%

Winning margin

Al Simawa wins by 2+

12%

Naft Maysan wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al Simawa 1+ goals

62%

Al Simawa 2+ goals

25%

Al Simawa 3+ goals

7%

Naft Maysan 1+ goals

64%

Naft Maysan 2+ goals

28%

Naft Maysan 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al Simawa (draw refunded)

48%

Naft Maysan (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Simawa at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Simawa attack 0.63 + Naft Maysan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.97

Naft Maysan attack 1.06 + Al Simawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Simawa scores more

33%

level

31%

Naft Maysan scores more

36%

Naft Maysan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Naft Maysan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff