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Al Simawa vs Naft Al-Wasat — Iraqi League 2020

Al Simawa
Al Simawa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Naft Al-Wasat
Naft Al-Wasat
2/23/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 20Al Samawah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Simawa32%
×Draw32%
Naft Al-Wasat36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Simawa
0.90
Naft Al-Wasat
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 73 away

creates per match

Al Simawa
0.63
Naft Al-Wasat
0.96

allows per match

Al Simawa
1.00
Naft Al-Wasat
1.16

finishing

Al Simawa+0.00on par
Naft Al-Wasat+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Simawa ↓

Naft Al-Wasat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al Simawa or draw
64%
Al Simawa or Naft Al-Wasat
68%
Draw or Naft Al-Wasat
68%

Winning margin

Al Simawa wins by 2+
11%
Naft Al-Wasat wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al Simawa 1+ goals
59%
Al Simawa 2+ goals
23%
Al Simawa 3+ goals
6%
Naft Al-Wasat 1+ goals
62%
Naft Al-Wasat 2+ goals
26%
Naft Al-Wasat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Simawa (draw refunded)
47%
Naft Al-Wasat (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Simawa at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Naft Al-Wasat away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Simawa attack 0.63 + Naft Al-Wasat defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.90

Naft Al-Wasat attack 0.96 + Al Simawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Simawa scores more
32%
level
32%
Naft Al-Wasat scores more
36%

Naft Al-Wasat at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Naft Al-Wasat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Simawa 0–0 Naft Al-Wasat

Al Simawa and Naft Al-Wasat drew 0-0 in Iraqi League on February 23, 2021.

The match was played at Al Samawah Stadium in Al Samawah.