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Al Simawa vs Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya — Iraqi League 2020

Al Simawa
Al Simawa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
1/16/2021Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 14Al Samawah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Simawa40%
×Draw31%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Simawa
1.11
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.89

Al Simawa creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

creates per match

Al Simawa
0.63
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
0.77

allows per match

Al Simawa
1.00
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
1.59

finishing

Al Simawa+0.00on par
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Simawa ↓

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Simawa or draw
71%
Al Simawa or Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
69%
Draw or Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya
60%

Winning margin

Al Simawa wins by 2+
17%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Simawa 1+ goals
67%
Al Simawa 2+ goals
30%
Al Simawa 3+ goals
10%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 1+ goals
59%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 2+ goals
22%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Simawa (draw refunded)
58%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Simawa at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Simawa attack 0.63 + Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.11

Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya attack 0.77 + Al Simawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Simawa scores more
40%
level
31%
Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya scores more
29%

Al Simawa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Simawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Simawa 2–0 Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya

Al Simawa beat Alsinaat Al Kahrabaiya 2-0 in Iraqi League on January 16, 2021.

The match was played at Al Samawah Stadium in Al Samawah.