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Al Simawa vs Al Shorta — Iraqi League 2020

Al Simawa
Al Simawa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
12/8/2020Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 7Al Samawah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Simawa19%
×Draw28%
Al Shorta53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Simawa
0.71
Al Shorta
1.38

Al Shorta creates 94% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 109 away

creates per match

Al Simawa
0.63
Al Shorta
1.76

allows per match

Al Simawa
1.00
Al Shorta
0.79

finishing

Al Simawa+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Simawa ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Simawa or draw
47%
Al Simawa or Al Shorta
72%
Draw or Al Shorta
81%

Winning margin

Al Simawa wins by 2+
5%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Al Simawa 1+ goals
51%
Al Simawa 2+ goals
16%
Al Simawa 3+ goals
4%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
75%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
40%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al Simawa (draw refunded)
27%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Simawa at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.79 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Simawa attack 0.63 + Al Shorta defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.71

Al Shorta attack 1.76 + Al Simawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Simawa scores more
19%
level
28%
Al Shorta scores more
53%

Al Shorta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Simawa vs Al Shorta

Al Shorta beat Al Simawa 3-0 in Iraqi League on December 8, 2020.

The match was played at Al Samawah Stadium in Al Samawah.