Al Simawa 0–1 Al Najaf: Result & Stats

Al Simawa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Najaf

11/4/2020

Iraqi League · Round 3Al-Karkh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Simawa29%

×Draw33%

Al Najaf38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SimawaExpected goals in this matchAl Najaf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

0.98

Al Simawa

0.81

Al Najaf

0.98

Al Najaf creates 21% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 112 away

0.63

creates per match

0.97

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Al Simawa

0.63

Al Najaf

0.97

allows per match

Al Simawa

1.00

Al Najaf

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Simawa+0.00on par

Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Simawa ↓

Al Najaf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Al Simawa or draw

62%

Al Simawa or Al Najaf

67%

Draw or Al Najaf

71%

Winning margin

Al Simawa wins by 2+

9%

Al Najaf wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Al Simawa 1+ goals

56%

Al Simawa 2+ goals

19%

Al Simawa 3+ goals

5%

Al Najaf 1+ goals

62%

Al Najaf 2+ goals

26%

Al Najaf 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Simawa (draw refunded)

43%

Al Najaf (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Simawa at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.00 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Simawa attack 0.63 + Al Najaf defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Al Najaf attack 0.97 + Al Simawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Simawa scores more

29%

level

33%

Al Najaf scores more

38%

Al Najaf at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Najaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff