Al Simawa 1–0 Al Minaa Basra: Result & Stats

Al Simawa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Al Minaa Basra

10/30/2020

Iraqi League · Round 2Al Samawah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Simawa36%

×Draw31%

Al Minaa Basra32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SimawaExpected goals in this matchAl Minaa Basra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

0.93

Al Simawa

1.01

Al Minaa Basra

0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 93 away

0.63

creates per match

0.86

1.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Al Simawa

0.63

Al Minaa Basra

0.86

allows per match

Al Simawa

1.00

Al Minaa Basra

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Simawa+0.00on par

Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Simawa ↓

Al Minaa Basra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Simawa or draw

68%

Al Simawa or Al Minaa Basra

69%

Draw or Al Minaa Basra

64%

Winning margin

Al Simawa wins by 2+

14%

Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al Simawa 1+ goals

64%

Al Simawa 2+ goals

27%

Al Simawa 3+ goals

8%

Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals

61%

Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals

24%

Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Al Simawa (draw refunded)

53%

Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Simawa at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.40 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Simawa attack 0.63 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.01

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.86 + Al Simawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Al Simawa scores more

36%

level

31%

Al Minaa Basra scores more

32%

Al Simawa at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Simawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff