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Al Simawa vs Al Karkh — Iraqi League 2020

Al Simawa
Al Simawa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Karkh
Al Karkh
11/28/2020Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 5Al Samawah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Al Simawa30%
×Draw32%
Al Karkh38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Simawa
0.85
Al Karkh
1.01

Al Karkh creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 108 away

creates per match

Al Simawa
0.63
Al Karkh
1.02

allows per match

Al Simawa
1.00
Al Karkh
1.07

finishing

Al Simawa+0.00on par
Al Karkh+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Simawa ↓

Al Karkh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Al Simawa or draw
62%
Al Simawa or Al Karkh
68%
Draw or Al Karkh
70%

Winning margin

Al Simawa wins by 2+
10%
Al Karkh wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Simawa 1+ goals
57%
Al Simawa 2+ goals
21%
Al Simawa 3+ goals
5%
Al Karkh 1+ goals
64%
Al Karkh 2+ goals
27%
Al Karkh 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Al Simawa (draw refunded)
44%
Al Karkh (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Simawa at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Al Karkh away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.07 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Simawa attack 0.63 + Al Karkh defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.85

Al Karkh attack 1.02 + Al Simawa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al Simawa scores more
30%
level
32%
Al Karkh scores more
38%

Al Karkh at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al Karkh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Simawa vs Al Karkh

Al Simawa beat Al Karkh 1-0 in Iraqi League on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Al Samawah Stadium in Al Samawah.