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Al Shorta vs Pakhtakor — AFC Champions League 2018

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pakhtakor
Pakhtakor
10/21/2024AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Stage - 3Karbala International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al Shorta33%
×Draw27%
Pakhtakor40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.18
Pakhtakor
1.32

Pakhtakor creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 23 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.00
Pakhtakor
0.78

allows per match

Al Shorta
1.86
Pakhtakor
1.35

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Pakhtakor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Pakhtakor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
60%
Al Shorta or Pakhtakor
73%
Draw or Pakhtakor
67%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
14%
Pakhtakor wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
69%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
33%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
12%
Pakhtakor 1+ goals
73%
Pakhtakor 2+ goals
38%
Pakhtakor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
45%
Pakhtakor (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

Pakhtakor away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.00 + Pakhtakor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Pakhtakor attack 0.78 + Al Shorta defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al Shorta scores more
33%
level
27%
Pakhtakor scores more
40%

Pakhtakor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pakhtakor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Al Shorta 0–0 Pakhtakor

Al Shorta and Pakhtakor drew 0-0 in AFC Champions League on October 21, 2024.

The match was played at Karbala International Stadium in Karbala.