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Al Shorta vs Naft Maysan — Iraqi League 2020

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Naft Maysan
Naft Maysan
2/23/2023Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 18Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al Shorta54%
×Draw25%
Naft Maysan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.58
Naft Maysan
0.87

Al Shorta creates 82% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 112 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.84
Naft Maysan
1.06

allows per match

Al Shorta
0.68
Naft Maysan
1.31

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Naft Maysan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Naft Maysan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
79%
Al Shorta or Naft Maysan
75%
Draw or Naft Maysan
46%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
29%
Naft Maysan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
79%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
47%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
21%
Naft Maysan 1+ goals
58%
Naft Maysan 2+ goals
22%
Naft Maysan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
72%
Naft Maysan (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.68 · 111 matches

Naft Maysan away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.84 + Naft Maysan defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.58

Naft Maysan attack 1.06 + Al Shorta defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al Shorta scores more
54%
level
25%
Naft Maysan scores more
21%

Al Shorta at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Shorta 3–0 Naft Maysan

Al Shorta beat Naft Maysan 3-0 in Iraqi League on February 23, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.