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Al Shorta vs Hilal Obayed — Sudani Premier League 2019

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
0 – 2
Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
6/4/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 17Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Al Shorta42%
×Draw30%
Hilal Obayed29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.17
Hilal Obayed
0.92

Al Shorta creates 27% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 56 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.01
Hilal Obayed
0.86

allows per match

Al Shorta
0.97
Hilal Obayed
1.32

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Hilal Obayed+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Hilal Obayed →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
71%
Al Shorta or Hilal Obayed
70%
Draw or Hilal Obayed
58%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
18%
Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
69%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
33%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
11%
Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
60%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
23%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
59%
Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Hilal Obayed away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.01 + Hilal Obayed defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hilal Obayed attack 0.86 + Al Shorta defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Shorta scores more
42%
level
30%
Hilal Obayed scores more
29%

Al Shorta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Shorta 0–2 Hilal Obayed

Hilal Obayed beat Al Shorta 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on June 4, 2021.

The match was played at Dar Alryada Omdurman Stadium in Umm Durmān.