Al Shorta 2–2 Hay Al Arab: Result & Stats

Al Shorta

FT

2 – 2

Hay Al Arab

2/25/2023

Sudani Premier League · Round 19Al-Gadarf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Al Shorta42%

×Draw28%

Hay Al Arab29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al ShortaExpected goals in this matchHay Al Arab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.00

Al Shorta

1.26

Hay Al Arab

1.00

Al Shorta creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

0.85

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Al Shorta

0.85

Hay Al Arab

1.00

allows per match

Al Shorta

1.00

Hay Al Arab

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par

Hay Al Arab+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Hay Al Arab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw

71%

Al Shorta or Hay Al Arab

72%

Draw or Hay Al Arab

58%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+

19%

Hay Al Arab wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals

72%

Al Shorta 2+ goals

36%

Al Shorta 3+ goals

13%

Hay Al Arab 1+ goals

63%

Hay Al Arab 2+ goals

26%

Hay Al Arab 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)

59%

Hay Al Arab (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Hay Al Arab away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 0.85 + Hay Al Arab defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Hay Al Arab attack 1.00 + Al Shorta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Al Shorta scores more

42%

level

28%

Hay Al Arab scores more

29%

Al Shorta at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff