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Al Shorta vs Baghdad — Iraqi League 2020

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Baghdad
Baghdad
10/30/2020Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 2Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Al Shorta58%
×Draw24%
Baghdad18%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.65
Baghdad
0.80

Al Shorta creates 106% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 78 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.84
Baghdad
0.91

allows per match

Al Shorta
0.68
Baghdad
1.46

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Baghdad+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Baghdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
82%
Al Shorta or Baghdad
76%
Draw or Baghdad
42%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
32%
Baghdad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
81%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
49%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
23%
Baghdad 1+ goals
55%
Baghdad 2+ goals
19%
Baghdad 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
76%
Baghdad (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.68 · 111 matches

Baghdad away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.46 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.84 + Baghdad defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.65

Baghdad attack 0.91 + Al Shorta defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al Shorta scores more
58%
level
24%
Baghdad scores more
18%

Al Shorta at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Shorta 2–0 Baghdad

Al Shorta beat Baghdad 2-0 in Iraqi League on October 30, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.