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Al Shorta vs Al Nawaeir — Premier League 2019

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Al Nawaeir
Al Nawaeir
7/13/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Shorta51%
×Draw27%
Al Nawaeir22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.47
Al Nawaeir
0.86

Al Shorta creates 71% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.08
Al Nawaeir
0.73

allows per match

Al Shorta
1.00
Al Nawaeir
1.85

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Al Nawaeir+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Al Nawaeir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
78%
Al Shorta or Al Nawaeir
73%
Draw or Al Nawaeir
49%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
26%
Al Nawaeir wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
77%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
43%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
18%
Al Nawaeir 1+ goals
58%
Al Nawaeir 2+ goals
21%
Al Nawaeir 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
70%
Al Nawaeir (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Al Nawaeir away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.08 + Al Nawaeir defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.47

Al Nawaeir attack 0.73 + Al Shorta defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Al Shorta scores more
51%
level
27%
Al Nawaeir scores more
22%

Al Shorta at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Shorta vs Al Nawaeir

Al Shorta beat Al Nawaeir 3-2 in Premier League on July 13, 2020.