Al Shorta 1–1 Al-Nassr: Result & Stats

Al Shorta

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Al-Nassr

Mohammad Dawood 24'

Sultan Al Ghannam 14'

9/16/2024

AFC Champions League · League Stage - 1Al-Madina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al Shorta20%

×Draw24%

Al-Nassr55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al ShortaExpected goals in this matchAl-Nassr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.69

Al Shorta

0.92

Al-Nassr

1.69

Al-Nassr creates 84% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 23 away

1.00

creates per match

1.52

1.86

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Al Shorta

1.00

Al-Nassr

1.52

allows per match

Al Shorta

1.86

Al-Nassr

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par

Al-Nassr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Al-Nassr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw

45%

Al Shorta or Al-Nassr

76%

Draw or Al-Nassr

80%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+

7%

Al-Nassr wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals

60%

Al Shorta 2+ goals

23%

Al Shorta 3+ goals

7%

Al-Nassr 1+ goals

82%

Al-Nassr 2+ goals

50%

Al-Nassr 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)

27%

Al-Nassr (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

Al-Nassr away — creates 1.52, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.00 + Al-Nassr defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Al-Nassr attack 1.52 + Al Shorta defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Shorta scores more

20%

level

24%

Al-Nassr scores more

55%

Al-Nassr at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al-Nassr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Otávio

Al-Nassr · M

7.9

Match Events

14'

Sultan Al Ghannam↳ Otávio

24'

Mohammad Dawood↳ Hussein Ali

40'

Mohamed Simakan

42'

Mohammed DawoodPenalty cancelled

45+3'

Salem Alnajdi

46'

Ângelo← Abdulrahman Ghareeb

53'

Abdullah Al Khaibari← M. Brozović

65'

Mohanad Ali← Mahmoud Al Mawas

66'

Lucas← Hussein Ali

69'

Wesley← S. Mané

69'

Nawaf Bu Washl← Salem Al Najdi

79'

Sajjad Jasim← Bassam Shakir

79'

Ameer Sabah← Faisal Jasim

80'

Lucas Esquerdinha

81'

Mohammed Al Fatil← Ali Lajami

89'

Ahmad Zero← Mohammad Dawood

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl-Nassr

Overview

41%Possession59%

5Total Shots17

2Corners9

10Fouls12

Shots

5Total Shots17

4On Target3

0Off Target9

1Blocked5

3Inside Box12

2Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

372Total Passes518

301Accurate Passes453

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1