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Al Shorta vs Al Najaf — Iraqi League 2025

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Najaf
Al Najaf
Sajjad Jasim 2'
4/12/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 27Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Al Shorta59%
×Draw24%
Al Najaf17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.71
Al Najaf
0.78

Al Shorta creates 119% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 29 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.80
Al Najaf
0.76

allows per match

Al Shorta
0.80
Al Najaf
1.62

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Al Najaf+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Al Najaf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
83%
Al Shorta or Al Najaf
76%
Draw or Al Najaf
41%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
33%
Al Najaf wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
82%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
51%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
24%
Al Najaf 1+ goals
54%
Al Najaf 2+ goals
18%
Al Najaf 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
78%
Al Najaf (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 41 matches

Al Najaf away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.62 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.80 + Al Najaf defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.71

Al Najaf attack 0.76 + Al Shorta defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Al Shorta scores more
59%
level
24%
Al Najaf scores more
17%

Al Shorta at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
Sajjad Jasim
Al
Al
Mohamed Semida
Manager: Mohamed Semida
Hasan Ahmad
Manager: Hasan Ahmad

Iraqi League: Al Shorta 1–0 Al Najaf

Al Shorta beat Al Najaf 1-0 in Iraqi League on April 12, 2025.

Goals: Sajjad Jasim (2').

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Baghdād.