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Al Shorta vs Al Minaa Basra — Iraqi League 2025

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Al Minaa Basra
Al Minaa Basra
Lucas 77'
Munaf Younus 75'
4/14/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 22Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Al Shorta55%
×Draw25%
Al Minaa Basra19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.56
Al Minaa Basra
0.81

Al Shorta creates 93% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 36 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.80
Al Minaa Basra
0.83

allows per match

Al Shorta
0.80
Al Minaa Basra
1.31

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Al Minaa Basra+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Al Minaa Basra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
81%
Al Shorta or Al Minaa Basra
75%
Draw or Al Minaa Basra
45%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
29%
Al Minaa Basra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
79%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
46%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
21%
Al Minaa Basra 1+ goals
56%
Al Minaa Basra 2+ goals
19%
Al Minaa Basra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
74%
Al Minaa Basra (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 41 matches

Al Minaa Basra away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.31 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.80 + Al Minaa Basra defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.56

Al Minaa Basra attack 0.83 + Al Shorta defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Al Shorta scores more
55%
level
25%
Al Minaa Basra scores more
19%

Al Shorta at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+8'
A. M. Ashour
75'
Munaf Younus
77'
Lucas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Al Shorta 2 – 0 Al Minaa Basra

Al Shorta beat Al Minaa Basra 2-0 in Iraqi League on April 14, 2024.

Goals: Munaf Younus (75'), Lucas (77').

The match was played at Al-Shaab Stadium in Bagdad.