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Al Shorta vs Al Kahrabaa — Iraqi League 2020

Al Shorta
Al Shorta
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
Mahmoud Al Mawas 90+6', 18'
Muhaimen Salim 10'
2/24/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 16Al-Madina International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Al Shorta54%
×Draw26%
Al Kahrabaa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shorta
1.55
Al Kahrabaa
0.85

Al Shorta creates 82% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 108 away

creates per match

Al Shorta
1.84
Al Kahrabaa
1.03

allows per match

Al Shorta
0.68
Al Kahrabaa
1.26

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par
Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Al Kahrabaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw
79%
Al Shorta or Al Kahrabaa
74%
Draw or Al Kahrabaa
46%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+
28%
Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals
79%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
46%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
20%
Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
57%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
21%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)
72%
Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.68 · 111 matches

Al Kahrabaa away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.84 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.55

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.03 + Al Shorta defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al Shorta scores more
54%
level
26%
Al Kahrabaa scores more
21%

Al Shorta at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
Muhaimen Salim
18'
Mahmoud Al Mawas
90+6'
Mahmoud Al Mawas

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al Shorta 2–1 Al Kahrabaa

Al Shorta beat Al Kahrabaa 2-1 in Iraqi League on February 24, 2024.

Goals: Muhaimen Salim (10'), Mahmoud Al Mawas (18', 90+6').

The match was played at Al-Madina International Stadium in Baghdad.