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Al Kahrabaa vs Al Shorta — Iraqi League 2025

Al Kahrabaa
Al Kahrabaa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Shorta
Al Shorta
A. Yahya 90'
10/4/2025Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Al Kahrabaa22%
×Draw25%
Al Shorta53%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Kahrabaa
0.93
Al Shorta
1.59

Al Shorta creates 71% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 34 away

creates per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.10
Al Shorta
1.79

allows per match

Al Kahrabaa
1.40
Al Shorta
0.76

finishing

Al Kahrabaa+0.00on par
Al Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Kahrabaa ↓

Al Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Kahrabaa or draw
47%
Al Kahrabaa or Al Shorta
75%
Draw or Al Shorta
78%

Winning margin

Al Kahrabaa wins by 2+
7%
Al Shorta wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Al Kahrabaa 1+ goals
61%
Al Kahrabaa 2+ goals
24%
Al Kahrabaa 3+ goals
7%
Al Shorta 1+ goals
80%
Al Shorta 2+ goals
47%
Al Shorta 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Al Kahrabaa (draw refunded)
29%
Al Shorta (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Kahrabaa at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

Al Shorta away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Kahrabaa attack 1.10 + Al Shorta defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.93

Al Shorta attack 1.79 + Al Kahrabaa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Kahrabaa scores more
22%
level
25%
Al Shorta scores more
53%

Al Shorta at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
A. Yahya
Al
Al
Luay Salah
Manager: Luay Salah
Moamen Soliman
Manager: Moamen Soliman

Iraqi League: Al Kahrabaa 0–1 Al Shorta

Al Shorta beat Al Kahrabaa 1-0 in Iraqi League on October 4, 2025.

Goals: A. Yahya (90').