Al Shorta 5–0 Al Diwaniya: Result & Stats

Al Shorta

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Al Diwaniya

3/15/2021

Iraqi League · Round 24Al-Shaab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Al Shorta67%

×Draw21%

Al Diwaniya12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al ShortaExpected goals in this matchAl Diwaniya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.63

Al Shorta

1.86

Al Diwaniya

0.63

Al Shorta creates 195% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 52 away

1.84

creates per match

0.58

0.68

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Al Shorta

1.84

Al Diwaniya

0.58

allows per match

Al Shorta

0.68

Al Diwaniya

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Shorta+0.00on par

Al Diwaniya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shorta ↓

Al Diwaniya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al Shorta or draw

88%

Al Shorta or Al Diwaniya

79%

Draw or Al Diwaniya

33%

Winning margin

Al Shorta wins by 2+

40%

Al Diwaniya wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Al Shorta 1+ goals

84%

Al Shorta 2+ goals

55%

Al Shorta 3+ goals

28%

Al Diwaniya 1+ goals

47%

Al Diwaniya 2+ goals

13%

Al Diwaniya 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Al Shorta (draw refunded)

85%

Al Diwaniya (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shorta at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.68 · 111 matches

Al Diwaniya away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.88 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shorta attack 1.84 + Al Diwaniya defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.86

Al Diwaniya attack 0.58 + Al Shorta defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Al Shorta scores more

67%

level

21%

Al Diwaniya scores more

12%

Al Shorta at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Al Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff