Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Al Shamal vs UMM Salal — League #305 2026

Al Shamal
Al Shamal
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
UMM Salal
UMM Salal
1/24/2025League #305League #305 · Round 13Al-Khwar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Shamal57%
×Draw19%
UMM Salal24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shamal
2.50
UMM Salal
1.57

Al Shamal creates 59% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 4 away

creates per match

Al Shamal
1.76
UMM Salal
1.25

allows per match

Al Shamal
1.90
UMM Salal
3.25

finishing

Al Shamal+0.00on par
UMM Salal+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shamal ↓

UMM Salal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Al Shamal or draw
76%
Al Shamal or UMM Salal
81%
Draw or UMM Salal
43%

Winning margin

Al Shamal wins by 2+
37%
UMM Salal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Shamal 1+ goals
92%
Al Shamal 2+ goals
71%
Al Shamal 3+ goals
45%
UMM Salal 1+ goals
79%
UMM Salal 2+ goals
46%
UMM Salal 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Al Shamal (draw refunded)
71%
UMM Salal (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shamal at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

UMM Salal away — creates 1.25, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shamal attack 1.76 + UMM Salal defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.50

UMM Salal attack 1.25 + Al Shamal defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al Shamal scores more
57%
level
19%
UMM Salal scores more
24%

Al Shamal at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al Shamal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Shamal vs UMM Salal

Al Shamal beat UMM Salal 4-0 in League #305 on January 24, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Khwar Stadium in Al-Khor.