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Al Shamal vs Al Sadd — League #305 2026

Al Shamal
Al Shamal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Al Sadd
Al Sadd
8/10/2024League #305League #305 · Round 1Ahmad bin Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Shamal33%
×Draw24%
Al Sadd43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shamal
1.38
Al Sadd
1.61

Al Sadd creates 17% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al Shamal
1.76
Al Sadd
1.33

allows per match

Al Shamal
1.90
Al Sadd
1.00

finishing

Al Shamal+0.00on par
Al Sadd+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shamal ↓

Al Sadd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al Shamal or draw
57%
Al Shamal or Al Sadd
76%
Draw or Al Sadd
67%

Winning margin

Al Shamal wins by 2+
15%
Al Sadd wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al Shamal 1+ goals
75%
Al Shamal 2+ goals
40%
Al Shamal 3+ goals
16%
Al Sadd 1+ goals
80%
Al Sadd 2+ goals
48%
Al Sadd 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Al Shamal (draw refunded)
43%
Al Sadd (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shamal at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

Al Sadd away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shamal attack 1.76 + Al Sadd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Al Sadd attack 1.33 + Al Shamal defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Shamal scores more
33%
level
24%
Al Sadd scores more
43%

Al Sadd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Al Sadd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Shamal vs Al Sadd

Al Shamal beat Al Sadd 2-1 in League #305 on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Ahmad bin Ali Stadium in Al-Rayyan.