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Al Shamal vs Al-Rayyan SC — League #305 2026

Al Shamal
Al Shamal
FT
3 – 5
HT: 2 – 2
Al-Rayyan SC
Al-Rayyan SC
4/11/2025League #305League #305 · Round 21Al-Khwar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Shamal33%
×Draw19%
Al-Rayyan SC47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shamal
2.04
Al-Rayyan SC
2.45

Al-Rayyan SC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 3 away

creates per match

Al Shamal
1.76
Al-Rayyan SC
3.00

allows per match

Al Shamal
1.90
Al-Rayyan SC
2.33

finishing

Al Shamal+0.00on par
Al-Rayyan SC+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shamal ↓

Al-Rayyan SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Al Shamal or draw
53%
Al Shamal or Al-Rayyan SC
81%
Draw or Al-Rayyan SC
67%

Winning margin

Al Shamal wins by 2+
17%
Al-Rayyan SC wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Al Shamal 1+ goals
87%
Al Shamal 2+ goals
60%
Al Shamal 3+ goals
33%
Al-Rayyan SC 1+ goals
91%
Al-Rayyan SC 2+ goals
70%
Al-Rayyan SC 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Al Shamal (draw refunded)
41%
Al-Rayyan SC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shamal at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

Al-Rayyan SC away — creates 3.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shamal attack 1.76 + Al-Rayyan SC defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Al-Rayyan SC attack 3.00 + Al Shamal defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Al Shamal scores more
33%
level
19%
Al-Rayyan SC scores more
47%

Al-Rayyan SC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Al-Rayyan SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Shamal vs Al-Rayyan SC

Al-Rayyan SC beat Al Shamal 5-3 in League #305 on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Al-Khwar Stadium in Al-Khor.