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Al Shahaniya vs Al Shamal — League #305 2026

Al Shahaniya
Al Shahaniya
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Shamal
Al Shamal
4/8/2026League #305League #305 · Round 21Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Shahaniya39%
×Draw31%
Al Shamal31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shahaniya
1.08
Al Shamal
0.93

Al Shahaniya creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

creates per match

Al Shahaniya
1.00
Al Shamal
1.53

allows per match

Al Shahaniya
0.33
Al Shamal
1.16

finishing

Al Shahaniya+0.00on par
Al Shamal+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shahaniya ↓

Al Shamal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Al Shahaniya or draw
69%
Al Shahaniya or Al Shamal
69%
Draw or Al Shamal
61%

Winning margin

Al Shahaniya wins by 2+
16%
Al Shamal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Al Shahaniya 1+ goals
66%
Al Shahaniya 2+ goals
29%
Al Shahaniya 3+ goals
10%
Al Shamal 1+ goals
61%
Al Shamal 2+ goals
24%
Al Shamal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Al Shahaniya (draw refunded)
56%
Al Shamal (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shahaniya at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Al Shamal away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shahaniya attack 1.00 + Al Shamal defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al Shamal attack 1.53 + Al Shahaniya defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Al Shahaniya scores more
39%
level
31%
Al Shamal scores more
31%

Al Shahaniya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Al Shahaniya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Shahaniya vs Al Shamal

Al Shahaniya beat Al Shamal 2-0 in League #305 on April 8, 2026.

The match was played at Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium in Doha.