Al-Shabab 1–1 Bahla: Result & Stats

Al-Shabab

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bahla

Emerson 28'

J. Timbo 48'

5/19/2024

Professional League · Round 21Sultan Qaboos Sport Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Al-Shabab40%

×Draw28%

Bahla32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-ShababExpected goals in this matchBahla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.06

Al-Shabab

1.23

Bahla

1.06

Al-Shabab creates 16% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 80 away

1.34

creates per match

1.02

1.11

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Al-Shabab

1.34

Bahla

1.02

allows per match

Al-Shabab

1.11

Bahla

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Shabab+0.00on par

Bahla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Shabab ↓

Bahla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Al-Shabab or draw

68%

Al-Shabab or Bahla

72%

Draw or Bahla

60%

Winning margin

Al-Shabab wins by 2+

17%

Bahla wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Al-Shabab 1+ goals

71%

Al-Shabab 2+ goals

35%

Al-Shabab 3+ goals

13%

Bahla 1+ goals

65%

Bahla 2+ goals

29%

Bahla 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Al-Shabab (draw refunded)

56%

Bahla (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Shabab at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Bahla away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.11 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Shabab attack 1.34 + Bahla defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bahla attack 1.02 + Al-Shabab defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al-Shabab scores more

40%

level

28%

Bahla scores more

32%

Al-Shabab at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al-Shabab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Emerson

48'

J. Timbo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff