Al Shabab 3–1 Al Riyadh: Result & Stats

Al Shabab

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Al Riyadh

Y. Carrasco 71', 24' (pen), 7'

L. Antunes 87'

2/23/2026

Pro League · Round 10Al-Shabab Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Al Shabab45%

×Draw22%

Al Riyadh33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al ShababExpected goals in this matchAl Riyadh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.60

Al Shabab

1.90

Al Riyadh

1.60

Al Shabab creates 19% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.85

creates per match

1.49

1.71

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Al Shabab

1.85

Al Riyadh

1.49

allows per match

Al Shabab

1.71

Al Riyadh

1.94

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Al Shabab-0.02on par

Al Riyadh-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shabab ↓

Al Riyadh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Al Shabab or draw

67%

Al Shabab or Al Riyadh

78%

Draw or Al Riyadh

55%

Winning margin

Al Shabab wins by 2+

25%

Al Riyadh wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Al Shabab 1+ goals

85%

Al Shabab 2+ goals

56%

Al Shabab 3+ goals

29%

Al Riyadh 1+ goals

80%

Al Riyadh 2+ goals

47%

Al Riyadh 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Al Shabab (draw refunded)

58%

Al Riyadh (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shabab at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.71 · 12 matches

Al Riyadh away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.94 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shabab attack 1.85 + Al Riyadh defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.90

Al Riyadh attack 1.49 + Al Shabab defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Al Shabab scores more

45%

level

22%

Al Riyadh scores more

33%

Al Shabab at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Shabab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Y. Carrasco

Al Shabab · M

9.9

Match Events

7'

Y. Carrasco↳ S. Balobaid

24'

Y. CarrascoPenalty

45+4'

S. Gonzalez← Y. Barbet

46'

F. Al Sobhi← E. Sali

46'

S. Haroun← A. Al Siyahi

68'

F. Al Saqour← M. Al Thani

68'

A. Al Asmari← V. Sierro

71'

Y. Carrasco

77'

B. Al Sayyali← J. Brownhill

77'

A. Azaizeh← H. Al Hammami

79'

K. Al Absi← Toze

82'

K. A. Al Sibyani H.← S. Balobaid

87'

A. Al Harfi← O. Al Boardi

87'

L. Antunes↳ O. Al Boardi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlAl

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots25

2.76Expected Goals (xG)1.97

5Corners9

7Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots25

7On Target7

6Off Target11

2Blocked7

12Inside Box14

3Outside Box11

Passing

46%Possession54%

361Total Passes411

300Accurate Passes344

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

0.54Goals Prevented0.54

Discipline

7Fouls9

1Offsides1