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Al Shabab vs Al Riffa — Premier League 2019

Al Shabab
Al Shabab
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Riffa
Al Riffa
12/27/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Al Shabab22%
×Draw25%
Al Riffa53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shabab
0.92
Al Riffa
1.60

Al Riffa creates 74% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 71 away

creates per match

Al Shabab
0.87
Al Riffa
1.82

allows per match

Al Shabab
1.38
Al Riffa
0.97

finishing

Al Shabab+0.00on par
Al Riffa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shabab ↓

Al Riffa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Al Shabab or draw
47%
Al Shabab or Al Riffa
75%
Draw or Al Riffa
78%

Winning margin

Al Shabab wins by 2+
7%
Al Riffa wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Al Shabab 1+ goals
60%
Al Shabab 2+ goals
23%
Al Shabab 3+ goals
7%
Al Riffa 1+ goals
80%
Al Riffa 2+ goals
47%
Al Riffa 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Al Shabab (draw refunded)
29%
Al Riffa (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shabab at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Al Riffa away — creates 1.82, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shabab attack 0.87 + Al Riffa defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Al Riffa attack 1.82 + Al Shabab defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Al Shabab scores more
22%
level
25%
Al Riffa scores more
53%

Al Riffa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Al Riffa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Shabab vs Al Riffa

Al Riffa beat Al Shabab 1-0 in Premier League on December 27, 2025.