Al Shabab 3–0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya: Result & Stats

Al Shabab

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

4/18/2022

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 4Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al Shabab85%

×Draw12%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al ShababExpected goals in this matchAl Quwa Al Jawiya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

0.25

Al Shabab

2.40

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

0.25

Al Shabab creates 860% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

3.50

creates per match

0.50

0.00

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Al Shabab

3.50

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

0.50

allows per match

Al Shabab

0.00

Al Quwa Al Jawiya

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Shabab+0.00on par

Al Quwa Al Jawiya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No80
Yes20

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shabab ↓

Al Quwa Al Jawiya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–021%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–016%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (21%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Al Shabab or draw

97%

Al Shabab or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

88%

Draw or Al Quwa Al Jawiya

15%

Winning margin

Al Shabab wins by 2+

62%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Al Shabab 1+ goals

91%

Al Shabab 2+ goals

69%

Al Shabab 3+ goals

42%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 1+ goals

22%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 2+ goals

3%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya 3+ goals

0%

Draw no bet

Al Shabab (draw refunded)

97%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shabab at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.00 · 4 matches

Al Quwa Al Jawiya away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shabab attack 3.50 + Al Quwa Al Jawiya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.40

Al Quwa Al Jawiya attack 0.50 + Al Shabab defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Al Shabab scores more

85%

level

12%

Al Quwa Al Jawiya scores more

3%

Al Shabab at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Al Shabab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff