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Al Shabab vs Al Qadsia — Crown Prince Cup 2020

Al Shabab
Al Shabab
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Al Qadsia
Al Qadsiaadvanced
1/7/2026Crown Prince CupCrown Prince Cup · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Al Shabab34%
×Draw25%
Al Qadsia41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Shabab
1.33
Al Qadsia
1.50

Al Qadsia creates 13% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Al Shabab
1.33
Al Qadsia
1.00

allows per match

Al Shabab
2.00
Al Qadsia
1.33

finishing

Al Shabab+0.00on par
Al Qadsia+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shabab ↓

Al Qadsia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Shabab or draw
59%
Al Shabab or Al Qadsia
75%
Draw or Al Qadsia
66%

Winning margin

Al Shabab wins by 2+
15%
Al Qadsia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Al Shabab 1+ goals
74%
Al Shabab 2+ goals
38%
Al Shabab 3+ goals
15%
Al Qadsia 1+ goals
78%
Al Qadsia 2+ goals
44%
Al Qadsia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Al Shabab (draw refunded)
45%
Al Qadsia (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shabab at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Al Qadsia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shabab attack 1.33 + Al Qadsia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Al Qadsia attack 1.00 + Al Shabab defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Shabab scores more
34%
level
25%
Al Qadsia scores more
41%

Al Qadsia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Qadsia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Shabab vs Al Qadsia

Al Qadsia beat Al Shabab 2-0 in Crown Prince Cup on January 7, 2026.