Al Shabab 1–4 Al Khaleej Saihat: Result & Stats

Al Shabab

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Al Khaleej Saihat

8/29/2025

Pro League · Round 1Al-Shabab Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Al Shabab50%

×Draw24%

Al Khaleej Saihat26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al ShababExpected goals in this matchAl Khaleej Saihat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.14

Al Shabab

1.69

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.14

Al Shabab creates 48% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 66 away

1.78

creates per match

1.11

1.17

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Al Shabab

1.78

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.11

allows per match

Al Shabab

1.17

Al Khaleej Saihat

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Shabab+0.00on par

Al Khaleej Saihat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shabab ↓

Al Khaleej Saihat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Al Shabab or draw

74%

Al Shabab or Al Khaleej Saihat

76%

Draw or Al Khaleej Saihat

50%

Winning margin

Al Shabab wins by 2+

27%

Al Khaleej Saihat wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Al Shabab 1+ goals

82%

Al Shabab 2+ goals

50%

Al Shabab 3+ goals

24%

Al Khaleej Saihat 1+ goals

68%

Al Khaleej Saihat 2+ goals

32%

Al Khaleej Saihat 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Al Shabab (draw refunded)

66%

Al Khaleej Saihat (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shabab at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.17 · 127 matches

Al Khaleej Saihat away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shabab attack 1.78 + Al Khaleej Saihat defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.11 + Al Shabab defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Al Shabab scores more

50%

level

24%

Al Khaleej Saihat scores more

26%

Al Shabab at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Al Shabab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff