Al Shabab 1–1 Al Arabi: Result & Stats

Al Shabab

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Arabi

8/31/2023

Premier League · Round 2Al Ahmadi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Al Shabab20%

×Draw23%

Al Arabi57%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al ShababExpected goals in this matchAl Arabi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.78

Al Shabab

0.94

Al Arabi

1.78

Al Arabi creates 89% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 84 away

0.77

creates per match

1.90

1.67

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Al Shabab

0.77

Al Arabi

1.90

allows per match

Al Shabab

1.67

Al Arabi

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Shabab+0.00on par

Al Arabi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Shabab ↓

Al Arabi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al Shabab or draw

43%

Al Shabab or Al Arabi

77%

Draw or Al Arabi

80%

Winning margin

Al Shabab wins by 2+

7%

Al Arabi wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Al Shabab 1+ goals

61%

Al Shabab 2+ goals

24%

Al Shabab 3+ goals

7%

Al Arabi 1+ goals

83%

Al Arabi 2+ goals

53%

Al Arabi 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Al Shabab (draw refunded)

26%

Al Arabi (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Shabab at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

Al Arabi away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.11 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Shabab attack 0.77 + Al Arabi defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.94

Al Arabi attack 1.90 + Al Shabab defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al Shabab scores more

20%

level

23%

Al Arabi scores more

57%

Al Arabi at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al Arabi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff