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Al Seeb vs Mrbat — Professional League 2019

Al Seeb
Al Seeb
FT
3 – 0
Mrbat
Mrbat
2/1/2020Professional LeagueProfessional League · Round 17Al-Seeb Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Al Seeb72%
×Draw18%
Mrbat10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Seeb
2.22
Mrbat
0.70

Al Seeb creates 217% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 13 away

creates per match

Al Seeb
1.90
Mrbat
0.85

allows per match

Al Seeb
0.54
Mrbat
2.54

finishing

Al Seeb+0.00on par
Mrbat+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Seeb ↓

Mrbat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Seeb or draw
90%
Al Seeb or Mrbat
82%
Draw or Mrbat
28%

Winning margin

Al Seeb wins by 2+
48%
Mrbat wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Al Seeb 1+ goals
89%
Al Seeb 2+ goals
65%
Al Seeb 3+ goals
38%
Mrbat 1+ goals
50%
Mrbat 2+ goals
16%
Mrbat 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al Seeb (draw refunded)
87%
Mrbat (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Seeb at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.54 · 79 matches

Mrbat away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Seeb attack 1.90 + Mrbat defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.22

Mrbat attack 0.85 + Al Seeb defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Al Seeb scores more
72%
level
18%
Mrbat scores more
10%

Al Seeb at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Al Seeb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Seeb vs Mrbat

Al Seeb beat Mrbat 3-0 in Professional League on February 1, 2020.

The match was played at Al-Seeb Stadium in Seeb.