Al Seeb 1–1 Al Ittehad: Result & Stats

Al Seeb

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al Ittehad

5/1/2023

Professional League · Round 23Al-Seeb Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Al Seeb63%

×Draw23%

Al Ittehad14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SeebExpected goals in this matchAl Ittehad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.69

Al Seeb

1.77

Al Ittehad

0.69

Al Seeb creates 157% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 31 away

1.90

creates per match

0.84

0.54

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Al Seeb

1.90

Al Ittehad

0.84

allows per match

Al Seeb

0.54

Al Ittehad

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Seeb+0.00on par

Al Ittehad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Seeb ↓

Al Ittehad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Al Seeb or draw

86%

Al Seeb or Al Ittehad

77%

Draw or Al Ittehad

37%

Winning margin

Al Seeb wins by 2+

37%

Al Ittehad wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Al Seeb 1+ goals

83%

Al Seeb 2+ goals

53%

Al Seeb 3+ goals

26%

Al Ittehad 1+ goals

50%

Al Ittehad 2+ goals

15%

Al Ittehad 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Al Seeb (draw refunded)

82%

Al Ittehad (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Seeb at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.54 · 79 matches

Al Ittehad away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.65 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Seeb attack 1.90 + Al Ittehad defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.77

Al Ittehad attack 0.84 + Al Seeb defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Al Seeb scores more

63%

level

23%

Al Ittehad scores more

14%

Al Seeb at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Al Seeb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff