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Al Salmiyah vs Kazma — Premier League 2019

Al Salmiyah
Al Salmiyah
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kazma
Kazma
1/15/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Thamir Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Al Salmiyah41%
×Draw25%
Kazma34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Salmiyah
1.52
Kazma
1.35

Al Salmiyah creates 13% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 83 away

creates per match

Al Salmiyah
1.68
Kazma
1.34

allows per match

Al Salmiyah
1.36
Kazma
1.37

finishing

Al Salmiyah+0.00on par
Kazma+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Salmiyah ↓

Kazma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Al Salmiyah or draw
66%
Al Salmiyah or Kazma
75%
Draw or Kazma
59%

Winning margin

Al Salmiyah wins by 2+
20%
Kazma wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Salmiyah 1+ goals
78%
Al Salmiyah 2+ goals
45%
Al Salmiyah 3+ goals
20%
Kazma 1+ goals
74%
Kazma 2+ goals
39%
Kazma 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Al Salmiyah (draw refunded)
55%
Kazma (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Salmiyah at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.36 · 84 matches

Kazma away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.37 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Salmiyah attack 1.68 + Kazma defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.52

Kazma attack 1.34 + Al Salmiyah defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Salmiyah scores more
41%
level
25%
Kazma scores more
34%

Al Salmiyah at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Salmiyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Salmiyah vs Kazma

Al Salmiyah beat Kazma 3-1 in Premier League on January 15, 2025.

The match was played at Thamir Stadium in Kuwait City.