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Al Sahel vs Wathba — Premier League 2019

Al Sahel
Al Sahel
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Wathba
Wathba
10/21/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1Al Baladi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Al Sahel22%
×Draw29%
Wathba48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sahel
0.76
Wathba
1.27

Wathba creates 67% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 82 away

creates per match

Al Sahel
0.80
Wathba
1.15

allows per match

Al Sahel
1.40
Wathba
0.72

finishing

Al Sahel+0.00on par
Wathba+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sahel ↓

Wathba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Al Sahel or draw
52%
Al Sahel or Wathba
71%
Draw or Wathba
78%

Winning margin

Al Sahel wins by 2+
7%
Wathba wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al Sahel 1+ goals
53%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
18%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
4%
Wathba 1+ goals
72%
Wathba 2+ goals
36%
Wathba 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Al Sahel (draw refunded)
31%
Wathba (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sahel at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

Wathba away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.72 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sahel attack 0.80 + Wathba defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.76

Wathba attack 1.15 + Al Sahel defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Al Sahel scores more
22%
level
29%
Wathba scores more
48%

Wathba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wathba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Sahel 1–2 Wathba

Wathba beat Al Sahel 2-1 in Premier League on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Al Baladi Stadium in Tartous.