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Al Sahel vs Shorta — Premier League 2019

Al Sahel
Al Sahel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shorta
Shorta
11/6/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Al Baladi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Al Sahel35%
×Draw29%
Shorta37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sahel
1.11
Shorta
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 46 away

creates per match

Al Sahel
0.80
Shorta
0.89

allows per match

Al Sahel
1.40
Shorta
1.43

finishing

Al Sahel+0.00on par
Shorta+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sahel ↓

Shorta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Al Sahel or draw
63%
Al Sahel or Shorta
71%
Draw or Shorta
65%

Winning margin

Al Sahel wins by 2+
14%
Shorta wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Al Sahel 1+ goals
67%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
30%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
10%
Shorta 1+ goals
68%
Shorta 2+ goals
32%
Shorta 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Sahel (draw refunded)
49%
Shorta (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sahel at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

Shorta away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sahel attack 0.80 + Shorta defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.11

Shorta attack 0.89 + Al Sahel defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Al Sahel scores more
35%
level
29%
Shorta scores more
37%

Shorta at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shorta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Sahel vs Shorta

Al Sahel and Shorta drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 6, 2020.

The match was played at Al Baladi Stadium in Tartous.