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Al Sahel vs Jaish — Premier League 2019

Al Sahel
Al Sahel
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Jaish
Jaish
12/22/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Al Baladi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Al Sahel28%
×Draw29%
Jaish43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Sahel
0.93
Jaish
1.23

Jaish creates 32% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 69 away

creates per match

Al Sahel
0.80
Jaish
1.07

allows per match

Al Sahel
1.40
Jaish
1.06

finishing

Al Sahel+0.00on par
Jaish+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sahel ↓

Jaish →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Al Sahel or draw
57%
Al Sahel or Jaish
71%
Draw or Jaish
72%

Winning margin

Al Sahel wins by 2+
10%
Jaish wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Al Sahel 1+ goals
61%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
24%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
7%
Jaish 1+ goals
71%
Jaish 2+ goals
35%
Jaish 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Al Sahel (draw refunded)
39%
Jaish (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sahel at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

Jaish away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sahel attack 0.80 + Jaish defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.93

Jaish attack 1.07 + Al Sahel defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Al Sahel scores more
28%
level
29%
Jaish scores more
43%

Jaish at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jaish will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Al Sahel 1–2 Jaish

Jaish beat Al Sahel 2-1 in Premier League on December 22, 2023.

The match was played at Al Baladi Stadium in Tartous.