Al Sahel 0–1 Hottin: Result & Stats

Al Sahel

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hottin

11/10/2023

Premier League · Round 5Al Baladi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Al Sahel26%

×Draw29%

Hottin44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al SahelExpected goals in this matchHottin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.23

Al Sahel

0.88

Hottin

1.23

Hottin creates 40% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 82 away

0.80

creates per match

1.06

1.40

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Al Sahel

0.80

Hottin

1.06

allows per match

Al Sahel

1.40

Hottin

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Sahel+0.00on par

Hottin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Sahel ↓

Hottin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–115%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Al Sahel or draw

56%

Al Sahel or Hottin

71%

Draw or Hottin

74%

Winning margin

Al Sahel wins by 2+

9%

Hottin wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Al Sahel 1+ goals

59%

Al Sahel 2+ goals

22%

Al Sahel 3+ goals

6%

Hottin 1+ goals

71%

Hottin 2+ goals

35%

Hottin 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Al Sahel (draw refunded)

37%

Hottin (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Sahel at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 25 matches

Hottin away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Sahel attack 0.80 + Hottin defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.88

Hottin attack 1.06 + Al Sahel defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Sahel scores more

26%

level

29%

Hottin scores more

44%

Hottin at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hottin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff